Why There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market

  There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.   According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong: “At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.” That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below):   Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below):     The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue). But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below):     As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed. Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market? Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn't expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way. Bottom Line Most experts now think we won't have a recession in the next year. They also don't expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.   Top Realtor, Marquesa Hobbs,  is ready to help you plan for 2024!   cell 719.238.0330 office 719.536.4444 Marquesa@ColoradoHearthstone.com 6760 Corporate Drive, Ste. 300 | Colorado Springs, CO 80919

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Preparing to list your home, its time to get a plan in place

  If your thinking of putting your home on the marketing, now is the time to get it ready.   Below are tips to help you prepare your home to sell. STEP 1: Getting your house ready. Depersonalize and declutter your home. Change your environment to a neutral canvas. You might want to bring in a 'Stager' to help.   STEP 2: Detach yourself emotionally from your home, this is a business deal so you'll want to maximize your profits and minimize your stress.   STEP 3: Set the price to the right price, not too low where you lose money, but not too high where you'll lose buyers. It takes a market analysis to determine the correct figure. At Colorado Hearthstone Properties we can provide you with the necessary information to make an informed decision.   Top Realtor, Marquesa Hobbs,  is ready to help you plan for 2024!   cell 719.238.0330 office 719.536.4444 Marquesa@ColoradoHearthstone.com 6760 Corporate Drive, Ste. 300 | Colorado Springs, CO 80919

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What’s Really Happening with Mortgage Rates?

Are you feeling a bit unsure about what’s really happening with mortgage rates? That might be because you’ve heard someone say they’re coming down. But then you read somewhere else that they’re up again. And that may leave you scratching your head and wondering what’s true. The simplest answer is: that what you read or hear will vary based on the time frame they’re looking at. Here’s some information that can help clear up the confusion. Mortgage Rates Are Volatile by Nature Mortgage rates don’t move in a straight line. There are too many factors at play for that to happen. Instead, rates bounce around because they’re impacted by things like economic conditions, decisions from the Federal Reserve, and so much more. That means they might be up one day and down the next depending on what’s going on in the economy and the world as a whole. Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show the ebbs and flows in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate since last October:     If you look at the graph, you’ll see a lot of peaks and valleys – some bigger than others. And when you use data like this to explain what’s happening, the story can be different based on which two points in the graph you’re comparing. For example, if you’re only looking at the beginning of this month through now, you may think mortgage rates are on the way back up. But, if you look at the latest data point and compare it to the peak in October, rates have trended down. So, what’s the right way to look at it? The Big Picture Mortgage rates are always going to bounce around. It’s just how they work. So, you shouldn’t focus too much on the small, daily changes. Instead, to really understand the overall trend, zoom out and look at the big picture. When you look at the highest point (October) compared to where rates are now, you can see they’ve come down compared to last year. And if you’re looking to buy a home, this is big news. Don’t let the little blips distract you. The experts agree, overall, that the larger downward trend could continue this year.  Bottom Line Let’s connect if you have any questions about what you’re reading or hearing about the housing market.   Top Realtor, Marquesa Hobbs,  is ready to help you plan for 2024!   cell 719.238.0330 office 719.536.4444 Marquesa@ColoradoHearthstone.com 6760 Corporate Drive, Ste. 300 | Colorado Springs, CO 80919

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