What To Look For From This Week’s Fed Meeting
You may be hearing a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and how their actions will impact the housing market right now. Here’s why. The Fed meets again this week to decide the next step with the Federal Funds Rate. That's how much it costs banks to borrow from each other. Now, that’s not the same thing as setting mortgage rates, but mortgage rates can be influenced through this process. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you may be wondering about the downstream impact and when mortgage rates will come down. Here’s a quick rundown of what you need to know to help you anticipate what’ll happen next. The Fed’s decisions are guided by these three key economic indicators: The Direction of Inflation How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding The Unemployment Rate Let’s take a look at each one. 1. The Direction of Inflation You’ve likely noticed prices for everyday goods and services seem to be higher each time you make a purchase at the store. That’s because of inflation – and the Fed wants to see that number come back down so it’s closer to their 2% target. Right now, it’s still higher than that. But despite a little volatility, inflation has generally been moving in the right direction. It gradually came down over the past two years, and is holding fairly steady right now (see graph below): The path of inflation – though still not at their target rate – is a big part of the reason why the Fed will likely lower the Fed Funds Rate again this week to make borrowing less expensive, while still ensuring the economy continues to grow. 2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding The Fed is also keeping an eye on how many new jobs are added to the economy each month. They want job growth to slow down a bit before they cut the Federal Funds Rate further. When fewer jobs are created, it shows the economy is still doing well, but gradually cooling off—exactly what they’re aiming for. And that’s what’s happening right now. Reuters says: “Any doubts the Federal Reserve will go ahead with an interest-rate cut . . . fell away on Friday after a government report showed U.S. employers added fewer workers in October than in any month since December 2020.” Employers are still hiring, but just not as many positions right now. This shows the job market is starting to slow down after running hot for a while, which is what the Fed wants to see. 3. The Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate shows the percentage of people who want jobs but can’t find them. A low unemployment rate means most people are working, which is great. However, it can push inflation higher because more people working means more spending—and that makes prices go up. Many economists consider any unemployment rate below 5% to be as close to full employment as is realistically possible. In the most recent report, unemployment is sitting at 4.1% (see graph below): Unemployment this low shows the labor market is still strong even as fewer jobs were added to the economy. That’s the balance the Fed is looking for. What Does This Mean Going Forward? Overall, the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see – and that’s why experts say they will likely cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter of a percentage point this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If that expectation ends up being correct, that could pave the way for mortgage rates to come down too. But that doesn’t mean they’ll fall immediately. It will take some time. Remember, the Fed doesn’t determine mortgage rates. Forecasts show mortgage rates will ease more gradually over the course of the next year as long as these economic indicators continue to move in the right direction and the Fed can continue their Federal Funds rate cuts through 2025. But a change in any one of the factors mentioned here could cause a shift in the market and in the Fed’s actions in the days and months ahead. So, brace for some volatility, and for mortgage rates to respond along the way. As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, notes: "The trajectory of rates over the coming months will be largely dependent on three key factors: (1) the performance of the labor market, (2) the outcome of the presidential election, and (3) any possible reemergence of inflationary pressure. While volatility has been the theme of mortgage rates over the past several months, we expect stability to reemerge towards the end of November and into early December." Bottom Line While the Fed’s actions play a part, economic data and market conditions are what really drive mortgage rates. As we move through the rest of 2024 and 2025, expect rates to stabilize or decline gradually, offering more certainty in what has been a volatile market. Top Realtor, Marquesa Hobbs, is ready to help you whether you are buying or selling Real Estate! cell 719.238.0330 office 719.536.4444 Marquesa@ColoradoHearthstone.com
Two Reasons Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash
You may have heard chatter recently about the economy and talk about a possible recession. It's no surprise that kind of noise gets some people worried about a housing market crash. Maybe you’re one of them. But here’s the good news – there’s no need to panic. The housing market is not set up for a crash right now. Real estate journalist Michele Lerner says: “A housing market crash happens when home values plummet due to a lack of demand for homes or an oversupply.” With that definition in mind, here are two reasons why this just isn’t on the horizon. 1. Demand for Homes Is Higher than Supply One of the biggest reasons the housing market crashed back in 2008 was an oversupply of homes. Today, though, it’s a very different story. It’s a general rule of thumb that a market where supply and demand are balanced has a six-month supply of homes. A higher number means supply outpaces demand, and a lower number means demand outpaces supply. The graph below uses data from NAR to put today’s situation into context: The graph compares housing supply during three different periods of time. The red bar shows there were 13 months of supply before the 2008 crisis, which was far too much. The gray bar shows a balanced market with six months of supply, for context. And the blue bar shows there are only 4.2 months of supply today. Put simply, there are more people who want to buy homes than there are homes available to buy right now. So, demand is greater than supply. When that happens, home prices stay steady or rise – the opposite of a housing market crash. It’s important to note that inventory levels differ from market to market. Some areas may be more balanced, while a few could have a slight oversupply, which can impact prices locally. However, most markets continue to experience a shortage of homes. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.” 2. Unemployment Is Still Low When people are unemployed, they’re more likely to have trouble making their mortgage payments and may be forced to sell or face foreclosure. That was a big problem during the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the employment situation is much more stable (see graph below): Again, this graph shows three different periods of time, but this one is the unemployment rate. The red bar represents the 2008 financial crisis when unemployment was very high at 8.3%. The gray bar shows the 75-year average of 5.7%. And the blue bar shows the unemployment rate today, and it’s much lower at just 4.1%. Right now, people are working, earning an income, and making their mortgage payments. That’s one reason why the wave of foreclosures that happened in 2008 isn’t going to happen again this time. Plus, since so many people are employed right now, many are actually in a position to buy a home, and this demand keeps upward pressure on prices. Today’s Housing Market Is Stronger than in 2008 While it’s understandable to be concerned when you hear talk of a recession and economic uncertainty, but know this: the housing market is in a much better place than it was in 2008. According to Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Company: “Literally everything is different about today’s housing market dynamics than the conditions that led to the housing crisis.” Demand for homes still outpaces supply, and unemployment remains low. And these are two key factors that will help prevent the housing market from crashing any time soon. Bottom Line The housing market is doing a lot better than it was in 2008, but it’s important to remember that real estate is very local. So, it’s always a good idea to stay informed about our specific market. If you have any questions or want to discuss how these factors are playing out in our area, feel free to reach out. Top Realtor, Marquesa Hobbs, is ready to help you whether you are buying or selling Real Estate! cell 719.238.0330 office 719.536.4444 Marquesa@ColoradoHearthstone.com
Now’s the Time To Upgrade to Your Dream Home
If you’ve been wanting to sell your house and move up to a bigger or nicer home, you’re not alone. A recent Inman survey reveals the top motivator for today’s homebuyers is the desire for more space or an upgraded home (see graph below): But there’s also a good chance you, like many other people, have been holding off on that goal because of recent market challenges. It makes sense – when you’re planning an upgrade that could increase your monthly housing costs, affordability has a huge impact on when you make your move. But there’s good news: now’s actually a great time to make that move happen. Here’s why. You Have a Lot of Equity To Leverage One of the key benefits in today’s market is the amount of equity you’ve likely built up in your current house over the years. Even with recent shifts in the housing market, national home prices have steadily grown, adding to the equity homeowners have today. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains it well: “Persistent home price growth has continued to fuel home equity gains for existing homeowners who now average about $315,000 in equity and almost $129,000 more than at the onset of the pandemic.” What does that mean for you? If you’ve been in your home for a few years, you’re probably sitting on a significant amount of equity. You can put that toward the down payment on your next home, helping keep the amount you borrow within a comfortable range. This can make upgrading more achievable than you might think. If you’re curious how much you’ve built up over the years, ask your real estate agent for a professional equity assessment. Mortgage Rates Have Fallen, Boosting Your Purchasing Power And there’s another big reason why now’s a great time to make your move: mortgage rates are trending down. Lower rates can help make your future monthly payments more manageable, and they also increase your purchasing power. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Real Estate Research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), points out: “When mortgage rates fall, the interest portion of monthly payments decreases, which lowers the total payment. This makes it easier for more borrowers to . . . qualify for mortgages that may have been unaffordable at higher rates.” That gives you more flexibility when shopping for homes and may allow you to afford a house at a price point that was previously out of reach. A trusted lender can work with you to figure out the best plan for your budget. Bottom Line If you’re ready to sell your current home and find the bigger, nicer home you’ve been dreaming of, don’t wait. Your equity, paired with lower mortgage rates, puts you in a great position to make that move today. To make the best decisions and get the most out of your current market advantage, let’s connect so you have an expert guide through every step of the homebuying process. Top Realtor, Marquesa Hobbs, is ready to help you whether you are buying or selling Real Estate! cell 719.238.0330 office 719.536.4444 Marquesa@ColoradoHearthstone.com
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