Housing Market Forecast: What’s Ahead for the 2nd Half of 2024

As we move into the second half of 2024, here’s what experts say you should expect for home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales. Home Prices Are Expected To Climb Moderately Home prices are forecasted to rise at a more normal pace. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from seven of the most trusted sources in the industry: The reason for continued appreciation? The supply of homes for sale. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains: “One thing that seems to be pretty solid is that home prices are going to continue to go up, and the reason is that we don't have housing inventory.” While inventory is up compared to the last couple of years, it’s still low overall. And because there still aren’t enough homes to go around, that’ll keep upward pressure on prices. If you’re thinking of buying, the good news is you won’t have to deal with prices skyrocketing like they did during the pandemic. Just remember, prices aren’t expected to drop. They’ll continue climbing, just at a slower pace. So, getting into the market sooner rather than later could still save you money in the long run. Plus, you can feel confident experts say your home will grow in value after you buy it. Mortgage Rates Are Forecast To Come Down Slightly One of the best pieces of news for both buyers and sellers is that mortgage rates are expected to come down a bit, according to Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and NAR (see chart below): When you buy, even a small drop in mortgage rates can make a big difference in your monthly payments. For sellers, lower rates will bring more buyers back into the market, which can help you sell faster and potentially at a higher price. Plus, it may help you get off the fence, if you’ve been hesitant to sell due to today’s rates. Home Sales Are Projected To Hold Steady For 2024, the number of home sales will be about the same as last year and may even rise slightly. The graph below compares the 2024 home sales forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR to the 4.8 million homes that sold last year: The average of the three forecasts is about 5 million sales in 2024 – a small increase from 2023. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why: “Job gains, steady mortgage rates and the release of inventory from pent-up home sellers will lead to more sales.” With more inventory available and mortgage rates expected to go down, a few more homes are expected to be sold this year compared to last year. This means more people will be able to move. Let's work together to make sure you’re one of them. Bottom Line If you have any questions or need help navigating the market, reach out.     Top Realtor, Marquesa Hobbs,  is ready to help you whether you are buying or selling Real Estate!   cell 719.238.0330 office 719.536.4444 Marquesa@ColoradoHearthstone.com 6760 Corporate Drive, Ste. 300 | Colorado Springs, CO 80919

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Focus on Time in the Market, Not Timing the Market

Should you buy a home now or should you wait? That’s a big question on many people’s minds today. And while what timing is right for you will depend on a lot of other personal factors, here’s something you may not have considered. If you’re able to buy at today’s rates and prices, it may be better to focus on time in the market, rather than timing the market. The Downside of Trying To Time the Market  Trying to time the market isn’t a good strategy because things can change. Here’s an example. For the better part of this year, projections have said mortgage rates will come down. And while experts agree that’s still what’s ahead, shifts in various market and economic factors have pushed back the timing of when that’ll happen. Here’s how that’s impacted homebuyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines. As U.S. News says: “Those who put off buying a home during the past few years as they were holding out for lower mortgage rates have been left out of the market . . . mortgage rates have stayed higher for longer than previously expected, keeping monthly housing payments elevated. In other words, affordability didn't improve for those who chose to wait.” This is why timing the market may not pay off if you’re ready and able to buy now. The Proof Is in the Pudding: How Homeowners Benefit from Rising Home Prices Delaying your plans also means missing out on the equity you’d gain if you went ahead with your purchase today. And the potential equity gains that are at stake may surprise you. Each quarter, Fannie Mae releases the Home Price Expectations Survey. It asks over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists what they forecast for home prices over the next five years. In the latest release, experts are projecting home prices will continue to rise through at least 2028 (see the graph below):    To give these numbers context, let’s take a look at a breakdown of what you stand to gain once you buy. The graph below uses a typical home’s value to show how a home could appreciate over the next few years using those HPES projections:    In this example, let’s say you went ahead and bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. Based on the expert forecasts from the HPES, you could gain more than $83,000 in household wealth over the next five years. That’s not a small number. This data helps paint the picture of why time in the market really matters. The Advice You Need To Hear If You’re Ready and Able To Buy Now Right now, you may be focused on what’s happening with mortgage rates and how those impact your monthly payment, but don’t forget to factor in home prices. Prices are expected to continue climbing, just at a more moderate pace. And while a moderate rise in prices may not be fun for you now, once you own a home, that growth will be a huge perk. That’s the time in the market piece. Sure, you could try timing the market, but the equity you’ll be missing out on in the meantime is something to seriously consider. If you’re ready and able to buy now, you have to decide: is it really worth waiting? Rather than focusing on timing the market. It’s better to have time in the market. As U.S. News Real Estate sums up: “There's never a one-size-fits-all answer to whether now is the right time to buy a home. . . . There's also no way to predict precisely what the market will do in the near future . . . Perfectly timing the market shouldn't be the goal. This decision should be determined by your personal needs, financial means and the time you have to find the right home.”  Bottom Line If you’re debating whether to buy now or wait, remember it’s time in the market, not timing the market. And if you want to get the ball rolling and set yourself up for those big equity gains, let’s connect to make it happen.    Top Realtor, Marquesa Hobbs,  is ready to help you whether you are buying or selling Real Estate!   cell 719.238.0330 office 719.536.4444 Marquesa@ColoradoHearthstone.com 6760 Corporate Drive, Ste. 300 | Colorado Springs, CO 80919

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Questions You May Have About Selling Your House

There’s no denying mortgage rates are having a big impact on today’s housing market. And that may leave you with some questions about whether it still makes sense to sell your house and make a move. Here are three of the top questions you may be asking – and the data that helps answer them. 1. Should I Wait To Sell? If you’re thinking about waiting to sell until after mortgage rates come down, here’s what you need to know. So are a ton of other people. And while mortgage rates are still forecasted to come down later this year, if you wait for that to happen, you may be dealing with a lot more competition as other buyers and sellers jump back in too. As Bright MLS says: “Even a modest drop in rates will bring both more buyers and more sellers into the market.” That means if you wait it out, you’ll have to deal with things like prices rising faster and more multiple-offer scenarios when you buy your next home. 2. Are Buyers Still Out There? But that doesn’t mean no one is moving right now. While some people are holding off, there are still plenty of buyers active today. And here’s the data to prove it. The ShowingTime Showing Index is a measure of how frequently buyers are touring homes. The graph below uses that index to show buyer activity for March (the latest data available) over the past seven years:   You can see demand has dipped some since the ‘unicorn’ years (shown in pink). That’s in response to a lot of market factors, like higher mortgage rates, rising prices, and limited inventory. But, to really understand today’s demand, you have to compare where we are now with the last normal years in the market (2018-2019) – not the abnormal ‘unicorn’ years.  When you focus on just the blue bars, you can get an idea of how 2024 stacks up. And that gives you a whole new perspective. Nationally, demand is still high compared to the last normal years in the housing market (2018-2019). And that means there’s still a market for your house to sell. 3. Can I Afford To Buy My Next Home? And if you’re worried about how you’ll afford your next move with today’s rates and prices, consider this: you probably have more equity in your current home than you realize. Homeowners have gained record amounts of equity over the past few years. And that equity can make a big difference when you buy your next home. You may even have enough to be an all-cash buyer and avoid taking out a mortgage altogether. As Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “ . . . those who have earned housing equity through home price appreciation are the current winners in today's housing market. One-third of recent home buyers did not finance their home purchase last month—the highest share in a decade. For these buyers, interest rates may be less influential in their purchase decisions.” Bottom Line If you’ve had these three questions on your mind and they’ve been holding you back from selling, hopefully, it helps to have this information now. A recent survey from Realtor.com shows more than 85% of potential sellers have been considering selling for over a year. That means there are a number of sellers like you who are on the fence. But that same survey also talked to sellers who recently decided to take the plunge and list. And 79% of those recent sellers wish they’d sold sooner. If you want to talk more about any of these questions or need more information, let’s connect. Top Realtor, Marquesa Hobbs,  is ready to help you whether you are buying or selling Real Estate!   cell 719.238.0330 office 719.536.4444 Marquesa@ColoradoHearthstone.com 6760 Corporate Drive, Ste. 300 | Colorado Springs, CO 80919

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